Odds
The race for the Champions League spots is reaching a fever pitch. Currently tied with Chelsea on 48 points, Liverpool enters the weekend desperate to reclaim a Top 4 position. They face a Tottenham side in absolute freefall, looking to add further misery to a Spurs squad that has struggled to find any footing in 2026.
Both clubs are reeling from disappointing midweek results in the Champions League Round of 16. Liverpool suffered a frustrating 1-0 defeat to Galatasaray—a “bad déjà vu” for Arne Slot after losing by the same scoreline in Istanbul earlier this season. Tottenham’s trip to Madrid was even more traumatic, as they conceded four goals in the opening 22 minutes en route to a 5-2 drubbing by Atletico.
That defensive collapse is becoming a hallmark for Spurs under interim boss Igor Tudor. Tottenham currently holds the league’s worst defensive record in 2026, conceding a staggering average of 2.09 goals per game.
Where Has The Money Gone?
While the side and total have remained relatively stable, we have seen some minor “buy-back” on the Liverpool spread. After some early Tottenham interest moved the Liverpool -1.5 line down a few cents, the market quickly corrected, rebounding back to the opener.
The most telling movement, however, is in the Tottenham Team Total. The “Under 0.5” has been steamed consistently over the last 48 hours, moving nearly 20 cents. This professional interest aligns with the reality on the pitch: Tottenham has averaged just 0.80 goals per game over their last five Premier League starts, and that was against defenses far less disciplined than Liverpool’s.
Prediction
Despite scoring twice in Madrid on Tuesday, Tottenham is historically struggling to find the net in domestic play. Since February 1st, they have netted only six times in the Premier League—the fourth-lowest rate in the division. More concerning for Spurs fans is their offensive xG, which ranks in the bottom three over that same span.
Liverpool, by contrast, remains a defensive juggernaut at Anfield. They own the league’s third-best defensive xGA in 2026 and lead the league in several underlying categories, including defensive xG per shot.
Given Tottenham’s lack of service to the front line and Liverpool’s need for a “get-right” game after their Turkish stumble, the value lies in the Reds’ ability to keep a clean sheet.